Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Look at the BIG picture

If you follow Macro trends, there still can be a case made for being a 'Buy & Hold' investor. So while we see 30 point swings in stocks like APPL, RIMM, AMZN et al - Do NOT take your eyes off the big picture. A few examples follow...

Who will win the Smart Phone race - Apple? Rimm? PAAALLLM? - There are currently over 1 Billion cell phones worldwide, and the Market is expected to grow to over 3 Billion cell phones in just the next few years. Of these current 1 Billion phones, only 100 Million are 'Smart Phones'. So who will win? Me thinks there is room for more than one player in this space, and longer term, all three of the aforementioned stocks will be winners.

Who will win in the search space - Google? Microsoft? Yahoo? - Google currently controls a whopping 69% of online ad spend. BUT only 7.5% of all advertising is currently spent online. While this number only represents (only said tongue and cheek) 25 billion today, by 2011 this will double to 50 billion dollars, as 15% of ad dollars are spent online. So who will win? Me thinks there is room for more than one player in this space, and longer term, all three of the aforementioned stocks will be winners.

LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE and start thinking of investment returns in 1000's %, and not 30 points here and there.

*disclaimer - I am a short term trader, and hold NOTHING long term. The aforementioned advice is intended for people who DO hold quality market leaders, in growing markets - to help keep this stock market in perspective.

4 comments:

  1. Yup - I agree entirely.
    I look for positions that week me in for a long haul - just don't have any at the moment... I expect this could change over the next year, but being trend follower on the ASX - I need to find the opportunity - till then - short term trades.

    Need the long term to get the huge returns!

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  2. This is great advice and explained logically. Examples are really good.
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