Friday, April 24, 2009

Short Term Top coming?

Back in mid April we blogged about why all that $4 Trillion in cash on the sidelines will NOT get their 20% pullback to put it to work. We blogged that the only way we would see that trend change is on a "blow-off" type day when things go parabolic... Possible catalysts?  LOT's of Treasury supply coming to market next week...If bid  to  cover is not 3:1 or better could send nervous signals throughout the markets.  We are almost through earnings more near term catalysts?   Bank stress test results get leaked?  Material Dollar weakness?  Or perhaps as simple as major indexes butting up against their 200 dma. Perhaps we are here (I just picked two random proxies) :

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Thursday, April 16, 2009

If it smells like a bull...

Though we might say "Sell in May and go away" - right now you gotta be a bull!

Forget about fundamentals (yes they are improving, or at least not getting worse). Forget about technicals (They are great and we are fully in gear).

So what will be MY tell? There is almost 4 TRILLION of cash sitting on the sidelines - and Managers are waiting for a 20% decline to put it to work...and that is why we will not see a 20% decline. What we will see first is a "BLOW OFF" top as these guys realize the boat left the dock and they're not on board. I expect that within the next few weeks we will see the market up 500 in one day...That will be a good time to take some chips off the table.

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