Thursday, May 7, 2009

Secondaries are the *new* Hot IPO's

Because I am more of a swing trader, I do not post on this blog daily.  There has not been a lot to say (at least that I can add any intelligence to).  We pounded the table, and went long the Bank stocks back in early March (right at the bottom).  We stayed long the market over the past two months.  We started 'peeling' out of our longs this past week.  Lastly, we started getting 'net' short the past few days.  Why did we get net short?  As per our previous blog post, we were looking for a "blow off" day.  While, I did not see it in the broader market, the action in the financials was all telling.

As of today's close, I closed out my short positions (had been levered short via FAZ,SRS and TZA 3x ETF's).  I have a very small position left long (JASO,CYOU and a hand full of pennies not worth mentioning).

The market is now closed for the day, and after the close, we find some high profile 'Tarp' banks announcing secondaries.  DO NOT FEAR THESE SECONDARIES - As they are the *New* Hot IPO's.  Point being, do not fear being long bank stocks over the next coming weeks.  I still see the XLF hitting my eventual target of 14.  Perhaps cleaning up these over levered balance sheets will bring us one step closer to my target.

What am I doing next?  I expect (hope) that the futures give us an up market tomorrow.  I will play it the same way I played today.  Levered shorts into a gap open.  I will be using today's highs as my stops.  Though I do not think we are at the start of anything big to the downside (the market never makes it that easy), I think today's action was shot #1 across the bow.

Happy trading.

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